$75,000 Seen as Key Bitcoin Level Amid U.S. Shutdown Delay, Options Caution

QCP Capital said on Feb. 4 that U.S. government shutdown risk has eased for now, with Department of Homeland Security funding extended only to Feb. 13, and it flagged $75,000 as a key Bitcoin inflection level, its official channel shows. The firm noted crude oil is rebuilding a moderate geopolitical risk premium after the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone near the Arabian Sea close to the aircraft carrier "Abraham Lincoln," while diplomatic headlines are limiting further gains. QCP Capital added that domestic politics around the Federal Reserve are heating up as Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair; if investors start to price larger rate cuts later this year, that could marginally support risk assets and weigh on the dollar, while Warsh has signaled a preference for faster balance-sheet reduction that could touch repo-market liquidity, with stress possible when reserves are scarce. In derivatives, the options market is signaling caution, with front-end implied volatility supported, at-the-money vols high, a slight spot premium in the term structure, steep downside skew and expensive butterfly spreads; tactically, QCP Capital views $75,000 as the pivot, where holding the level with position rebuilding and normalized funding would justify adding risk, while a break could turn sentiment defensive.