According to on-chain analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin's sharp swings between late January and early February 2026 have put the asset at risk of a 25% drop unless it climbs back above a key zone around $80,000. With BTC trading near $75,985 after rebounding from lows close to $73,000 on February 3, it remains below both the ETF cost basis of $82,600 and the 100-week SMA at $87,500, levels Martinez links to potential downside toward $57,000 and even $50,000 by March or April. He further projects the decline could extend to a possible cycle low around $38,000 in October if ETF inflows fail to improve.

Bitcoin's RSI has slipped below 30 while price approaches the $73,000–$75,000 support band. According to the analysis, oversold readings can precede short-term rebounds, but they may also lead to consolidation or further weakness. Past references place this zone at a rally peak in early 2024 and a pullback low in April 2025.

On 4 February 2026, Binance expanded its SAFU insurance fund by purchasing 1,315 BTC valued at roughly $100.4 million, according to Arkham Intelligence. During the selloff, Bitcoin dipped below $73,000 and later hovered near $76,000, while 24-hour liquidations totaled roughly $681 million, with longs about $508 million and shorts near $173 million.

On February 3, Dogecoin co-creator Billy Markus criticized Michael Saylor's recent comment describing Bitcoin's sharp price swings as "Satoshi's gift". Markus responded with a sarcastic post on X as Bitcoin dropped from $90,000 to an intra-day low of $73,000, while Saylor's firm Strategy continued to add BTC on the dip. Earlier, Saylor disclosed Strategy's latest 855 BTC purchase for about $75.3 million, bringing its holdings to 713,502 BTC.

Galaxy Digital has rejected claims that a $9 billion Bitcoin sale it executed for a wealthy client was driven by concerns over Bitcoin’s resistance to quantum computing. The clarification followed the firm’s quarterly earnings call, where community speculation linked the large trade to fears about quantum threats even as Galaxy reported a net loss of $482 million for Q4 2025 and $241 million for 2025.

By February 28, 2026, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, a logarithmic valuation model, maps BTC's potential price between roughly $41,800 and $459,000 across multiple risk bands. The framework marks "Basically a Fire Sale" at $41,800–$54,700 and "BUY!" at $54,700–$73,700, while a fair-value area near $120,000–$160,000 sits in the upper "Still cheap" and lower "HODL!" zones. With Bitcoin trading around $76,027 on February 4 after a weekly drop of nearly 15%, the asset remains below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs despite a deeply oversold 14-day RSI near 26.

On February 2, Michael Burry warned that Bitcoin's drop below the $80,000 support level could set off a cascading "death spiral" across crypto-linked assets and tokenized precious metals. He argued that Bitcoin now behaves like a risk asset correlated with equities, leaving leveraged positions, corporate treasuries and miners vulnerable to further declines.

On Tuesday, spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $272 million in net outflows, pulling assets under management below $100 billion for the first time since April 2025, according to SoSoValue. Bitcoin fell under $74,000 and the crypto market cap declined from $3.11 trillion to $2.64 trillion over the past week, per CoinGecko, while Ether-, XRP- and Solana-linked ETFs saw $14 million, $19.6 million and $1.2 million in inflows.