Bitcoin's 7-day moving average Net Realized Profit/Loss has slid to -$410M, alongside nine straight days of STH SOPR staying under 1.0. The figures suggest short-term holders are continuing to sell below cost, with loss-taking pressure worsening by $154M over the week. A shift toward a more neutral setup would require both metrics to move back above their key thresholds.

According to Axel Adler Jr., the last active sell-side risk alert appeared in December 2024 at $107K and has remained off for 449 days, while a sustained Accumulation Signal has been active since January 18, 2026. The Rolling Mean Sell-side Risk Ratio has dropped to 1,913, a level historically seen in bear markets, even though spot prices are around $67K-$72K. This combination suggests seller activity is depressed and the market is in an accumulation phase, with the main risk being extended consolidation without a strong price catalyst.

Over the last 30 days, Bitcoin's derivatives metrics have shifted from strong selling pressure toward early signs of demand recovery, with the Net Taker Volume SMA-7D rebounding from about -1.66 to +0.18 and showing three consecutive days of buyer dominance. At the same time, perpetual funding rates have finished negative on 23 of the past 30 days, including deep negative spikes at -145.9 and -126, leaving a gap between spot aggression and derivatives positioning. This divergence raises the question of whether the move back into the $67,000-$70,000 range marks the start of a sustained bullish phase or just a counter-trend rally within a weaker structure.

As of March 1–2, 2026, Bitcoin's 365-day Sharpe Ratio is at -63 and the fast 180-day version at -287, while the MVRV Z-Score stands at 0.49, both below key averages. These readings indicate the market is not adequately compensating risk, with negative risk-adjusted returns and a neutral network valuation that does not yet qualify as a historical buy zone. Together, the two metrics describe a transitional regime where investors face uncertainty and must wait for clearer reversal signals.

Bitcoin is sliding, with price near $66,399 and the Realized Price at $54,951 seen as the first structural support. LTH Cost Basis is climbing while Realized Price declines, narrowing a prospective $43K–$51K zone over the next quarter. A sustained break below $54,951 would increase the risk of a deeper bear phase.

From January 22 to February 6, Bitcoin's price fell 25% while network difficulty dropped in two steps by 3.3% and 11.2%, totaling 14.1%. According to the analysis, Cango sold 4,451 BTC for $305 million over the weekend for balance sheet reasons, as miner exchange inflow SMA30 stayed near ~82 BTC/day and the Puell Multiple 30DMA slid below 0.8.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $89K, directly on the $89.8K–$90K cost basis zone of short-term holder cohorts 0D–1D and 1W–1M, making this area a key on-chain support. If this band holds, it could enable market stabilization, while a break below would push both fresh cohorts underwater and increase short-term selling pressure. At the same time, STH MVRV is at 0.897 and moving toward the 0.875 lower bound of its 155-day range, a zone that has often aligned with local bottoms.

According to Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin sentiment moved from the ~80% bullish zone during January 13–15 to 44.9% after a deleveraging shock. At midnight on January 19, long liquidations totaled over $205M in a single hour, and price fell from $95.4K to $92.6K within 24 hours.

Since October 13, 2025, Bitcoin short-term holders have been selling coins below their purchase prices, with the weekly STH SOPR stuck under 1.0 and a Z-Score at -0.58. As of January 11, the 7-day STH SOPR stands at 0.994 and the daily value at 0.9817, indicating a loss-dominated environment that may only shift once the 7-day average climbs back above 1.0 and the Z-Score turns positive.