U.S. consumer inflation rose 0.4% month-on-month in August, pushing market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike higher. The implied probability climbed to 85% from 67%, adding pressure on global equities and lifting bond yields. Brent crude fell 3.3% to $104.04 a barrel, but was still up more than 8% for the week as Middle East tensions supported prices.

Traders are preparing to deliver large volumes of Brazilian Arabica coffee to ICE exchange warehouses to rebuild certified inventories that have fallen to a 26-year low. Olam and Louis Dreyfus Company are seeking to certify up to 200,000 bags for delivery against the December futures contract, with shipments to Antwerp, Belgium, rising. Although the 2026/27 season is forecast to be in surplus, ICE stocks remain well below normal levels and Brazil’s harvest has been delayed by extreme weather, keeping futures prices around $3 per pound.

U.S. Labor Department data showed the consumer price index rose 0.4% in August and was up 3.4% from a year earlier, unchanged from July. After the inflation report, the dollar strengthened against major currencies including the euro and the Swiss franc, according to the Labor Department. The figures reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its meeting next week.

U.S. August producer prices rose and oil costs surged, fueling worries the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its meeting next Wednesday. Brent crude climbed 6% to $107 a barrel amid supply disruptions tied to geopolitical conflict, adding to inflation expectations. The 10year Treasury yield rose to multi-year highs, pressuring equity valuations; the S&P 500 fell with Nvidia and Micron leading declines, while Apple gained after unveiling its $1,999 iPhone.

The Indian Primary Copper Producers Association says a mismatch between global mining and smelting capacity has helped push copper prices higher. Expectations of U.S. tariffs have diverted large volumes of spot copper to the United States, lifting Comex inventories to 675,000 tonnes while LME stocks have shrunk. LME copper hit $14,737 per tonne in September 2026, up 50% from a year earlier.

Maharashtra, India’s largest sugar-producing state, said it will begin sugarcane crushing on Oct. 15, about two weeks earlier than last year. Cane supply for the new season is expected to fall to around 99 million metric tons from 104.5 million tons in the previous season. India last month approved duty-free imports of 1 million metric tons of raw sugar to ease pressure from elevated domestic prices.

Global markets opened the week with sharp swings as Middle East tensions and inflation worries rattled risk assets. Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities, pushing Brent and U.S. crude to just below the $100 mark and adding to inflation expectations. Major U.S. stock indexes fell across the board, with the Dow down more than 1%. The yen surged on prospects of a Bank of Japan rate rise, while copper hit a record high on tightening supply, according to agency inputs.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed international oil prices close to $100 a barrel after a new round of attacks in Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis. U.S. stock indexes fell as investors worried that higher energy costs could intensify inflation. Markets are waiting for key inflation data due later this week that could influence Federal Reserve rate decisions. The ongoing U.S.-Iran standoff is still seen as a key factor for market stability and energy prices.

The yen surged on Tuesday, marking its strongest rally in two years as expectations grew that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates. Oil prices, meanwhile, moved close to $100 a barrel after attacks on energy facilities in the Gulf raised supply concerns. Copper hit record highs as the European Central Bank prepared to lift euro zone rates, adding to global market volatility and forcing investors to reassess strategies amid rising inflation and bond yields.