Following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, Bitcoin is holding in a consolidation phase as momentum weakens and derivatives flows remain balanced. Internal indicators point to a neutral regime, with participants favoring cautious positioning over aggressive bets. A trend continuation would require simultaneous bullish confirmation in adaptive momentum and the futures flow index.

Bitcoin’s drawdown has narrowed from –35% to roughly –27% since its October peak near $125,000, with 67% of circulating supply still in profit—signals that point to a stabilizing market rather than deep capitulation, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr. Short-term momentum is beginning to turn upward as BTC consolidates around the $90,000 level.

Bitcoin has rebounded from its October peak and subsequent pullback to around $80K, rising steadily for 14 days and moving close to its 52‑week high as the 200/20DMA slope turns positive. Polymarket is pricing a 96% probability of a 25 b.p. December rate cut to 3.50–3.75%, a backdrop that can support risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's 2025 cycle drawdown is roughly -32% from its all-time high, with prices holding near the $90K area and about 88% of coins still in unrealized profit, according to Axel Adler Jr. Around 12% of supply is at a loss, compared with past bear markets that often saw -60–80% drawdowns and roughly 60% of coins underwater. The current pullback therefore appears comparatively mild versus previous bear phases in terms of both depth and the share of supply in loss.

Bitcoin's Bull-Bear Structure Index shows a developing divergence, with the fast-tracking component declining to 18% while the slow version remains at 23%. The -5.28 point gap marks the first such signal since early December. The divergence emerges ahead of the Federal Reserve's December 10 rate decision, with markets assigning an 85% probability to a 25 basis point cut.

Bitcoin declined to $92,000 following a -32% drawdown from its all-time high, marking the steepest correction in the current cycle. On-chain data shows the P/L Score has remained in the -3 zone since November 6, a level historically associated with bearish market regimes and extended correction phases.

The Bitcoin Futures Market Power Index has reached 56.9, positioning above the critical 50 threshold and triggering a bull signal, data show. The index sits within the neutral zone of 40-60, with no extreme conditions present. The current level indicates derivatives market support for upward momentum, though the narrow margin above 50 suggests vulnerability to shifts in market pressure.