Macro specialists warn that Bitcoin could retreat toward the 70,000 dollar area if the Bank of Japan implements the widely expected interest rate hike on December 19, with past BOJ tightening cycles linked to sharp BTC pullbacks. Analysts point to global liquidity stress, unwinding yen carry trades and a current bear flag structure after the drop from 105,000–110,000 dollars as factors keeping Bitcoin's short-term outlook fragile.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, warned that a 30% decline in Tether's Bitcoin and gold holdings could eliminate the stablecoin issuer's equity cushion, potentially leaving USDT technically insolvent during a severe market downturn. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, disputed the concern, citing Tether's Q3 2025 attestation showing $181 billion in reserves against $174.45 billion in liabilities, resulting in a $6.8 billion surplus. The debate highlights ongoing scrutiny of Tether's reserve composition as it expands holdings in volatile assets while maintaining dominance with $185.5 billion in circulation.

Bitcoin's price trajectory in 2025 mirrors its 2022 bear market behavior with monthly correlation reaching 98%, according to network economist Timothy Peterson. The cryptocurrency trades approximately 36% below its all-time high as the year ends, contradicting earlier forecasts of strengthening momentum through December. Historical data indicates that negative November performance typically leads to December declines, though usually smaller in magnitude.

U.S.-listed cryptocurrency equities advanced Friday as prediction-market odds for a December Federal Reserve rate reduction surged to 87%, the month's highest level. Bitcoin miners including Cleanspark, Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining posted gains, extending a five-day rally. Circle, the USDC stablecoin issuer, jumped nearly 10% in early trading.

Bitcoin has rebounded toward the $87,000 to $90,000 range after declining from $106,000 to $80,600 over 10 days. While whale holders with over 10,000 BTC continue selling, mid-sized holders in the 10–1,000 BTC range are accumulating. Data shows demand from accumulator addresses reached 365,000 BTC on November 23, up from 254,000 BTC on November 1.

Senator Tim Scott, chair of the Senate Banking Committee, announced plans to advance a crypto market structure bill through committee markup in December. Scott told Fox Business he intends to move the legislation to the Senate floor early next year for President Trump's signature. Negotiations with Democratic colleagues remain ongoing, with both the Banking and Agriculture Committees expected to complete markup next month.

Michael Saylor, executive chair of Strategy, denied reports that the company sold approximately 47,000 BTC during the recent market downturn. The denial came as Bitcoin dropped below $95,000, falling more than 4% in 24 hours. Strategy continues to hold roughly 640,000 BTC, maintaining its position as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

Bitcoin fell to approximately $100,700 on Wednesday, marking a 3.5% weekly decline. Long-term holders have sold more than 815,000 BTC over the past month, raising concerns that reduced liquidity could push prices toward the $98,000 level. Market participants are watching whether continued selling pressure and elevated leverage will drive the asset into lower liquidity zones.