Cryptocurrency analyst Miles Deutscher stated on December 4 that he assigns a 91.5% probability to Bitcoin having already reached its cycle low. His assessment draws on four factors: the market's resilient response to negative headlines, historical patterns during clusters of fear-driven news, a shift in capital flows from aggressive selling to stabilization, and improving global liquidity conditions.

XRP is trading near the $2.00 support level as two crypto analysts identify technical patterns signaling a potential trend reversal. Dom highlights a 3-drive formation across six weeks of price action, while Osemka maps a flat correction structure built on the 2021 high. Both frameworks point to key resistance at $2.22 and $2.50 as critical levels for bulls to reclaim.

Bitcoin opened December 2024 under selling pressure, continuing a pattern observed throughout the year. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades found that approximately 80% of months in 2024 established their monthly high or low within the first 12 days. December has followed this trend with an immediate decline from the monthly open, leaving no upside wick.

The number of XRP wallets holding at least 100 million coins has dropped 20.6% over eight weeks, data show. The remaining accounts now collectively control 48 billion XRP—the highest level since 2018. The divergence points to consolidation among the network's largest holders, with fewer wallets commanding greater aggregate balances.

Placeholder VC's Chris Burniske has identified a long-term opportunity in Bitcoin but cautions that accumulation may require a deeper pullback toward the 200-week simple moving average around $56,000. He states current pessimism creates favorable risk-reward for high-conviction positions, though aggressive deployment remains premature. Burniske views the ongoing repricing across crypto markets as necessary rather than destructive.

XRP futures open interest declined from 1.7 billion XRP in early October to 0.7 billion XRP by late November, a 59% reduction representing approximately one billion XRP in closed or liquidated derivative contracts. Funding rates dropped from around 0.01% to 0.001% on a seven-day moving average, indicating a shift from aggressive long positioning to near-neutral market sentiment. The deleveraging occurred as 58.5% of XRP supply remained in profit as of November 17, the lowest proportion since November 2024 when price stood at $0.53.

Michael Howell, a global liquidity specialist, said on the Bankless podcast that cryptocurrency assets are in a late-cycle position rather than starting a new expansion. He tracks a 65-month global liquidity cycle linked to debt refinancing patterns and projects the current cycle may be peaking, with implications for digital currencies and other risk assets.

Cryptocurrency markets have not fully priced the potential pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts under a Trump-aligned chair taking office in 2026, macro trader Alex Krüger said. Futures curves imply approximately 48 basis points of easing between late April and early December 2026. Krüger argues this falls short of the faster, larger cuts favored by Trump administration-aligned policymakers.

Glassnode co-founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann attribute Bitcoin's recent downturn to systematic mechanical selling by one constrained participant rather than broad market repricing. They cite unusual momentum patterns—including an all-time low 1-day MACD despite only a 33% price drop—as evidence of forced liquidation absent typical macro stress or leverage shocks. The analysts argue the selling exhibits characteristics of rules-based unwinding rather than organic sentiment deterioration.