Negli ultimi due anni, l’attività di trading nei prediction market è aumentata di 393 volte. Ora però sta emergendo una nuova dinamica: grandi aziende iniziano a gestire questi mercati direttamente. Charles Schwab e BetConstruct AI hanno dichiarato che lanceranno contratti evento binari “sì/no” sulle rispettive piattaforme nella stessa giornata. Il segnale è che il trading basato su eventi non è più appannaggio di startup specializzate e sta diventando una funzionalità integrabile dai grandi operatori.

Nonostante le difficoltà reputazionali che coinvolgono Polymarket, i mercati predittivi continuano a segnare nuovi massimi. L’open interest dei prediction market ha raggiunto il record di $1.48 billion nella settimana conclusa il 15 giugno, per la seconda settimana consecutiva ai massimi storici, secondo a16z Crypto. A differenza dei volumi di scambio, l’open interest misura il valore delle scommesse ancora aperte e in corso.

Un nuovo gruppo di società tecnologiche sta mettendo in discussione i tradizionali “favoriti” di Wall Street. Il cambio di narrativa arriva mentre il settore ha registrato una maxi IPO, un buyout da $60 miliardi e un ordine del governo che ha bloccato l’accesso a uno dei sistemi di IA più potenti degli Stati Uniti. Per anni gli investitori si sono concentrati sui “Magnificent Seven”. Ora gli osservatori di mercato indicano che il nuovo raggruppamento, il FAB 10, sta rapidamente prendendo spazio nel dibattito.

Sportradar reached a multi-year global agreement to supply sports data and related services to prediction market platform Kalshi. After the announcement, SRAD shares rose 9.06% and were trading at $15.16, while Needham lifted its price target to $23 from $19 and kept a Buy rating. Needham also said prediction markets can deliver more revenue per dollar of volume for data providers than traditional sportsbooks.

After one week of U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran, President Donald Trump on Friday rejected any diplomatic settlement short of Iran's "unconditional surrender" while Tehran dismissed calls for a ceasefire. The escalation has disrupted global energy markets, driven Brent and WTI prices sharply higher, and forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving 147 container ships stranded and intensifying pressure on Europe's gas supplies.

In the week before March 5, 2026, Polymarket removed a prediction market that had attracted over $650,000 in volume on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated by specific future dates. Around the same period, Kalshi faced political backlash over a market tied to whether Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be "out" after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, and later offered refunds. The controversies have coincided with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission advancing a rulemaking process to set federal standards for prediction markets.

On March 3, 2026, Visa and Bridge announced plans to extend their stablecoin-backed card program to more than 100 countries by year-end, up from the current 18. Cardholders will be able to spend stablecoins at over 175 million Visa-accepting merchants, while a separate pilot with Lead Bank is testing direct on-chain settlement for issuers.

After the strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Iranians rushed into Nobitex and other domestic exchanges, driving a 700% jump in crypto outflows as they tried to shield savings from a weakening rial and potential banking curbs. Subsequent internet restrictions reportedly cut national connectivity by about 99%, freezing access to major platforms, slowing withdrawals, and forcing some venues to batch transfers. The episode underscored how cryptocurrencies can offer an escape from a fragile financial system while blockchain transparency simultaneously exposes money flows to authorities and global monitors.

On March 1, 2026, Iran established a three-member interim leadership council after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike. Crypto prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi quickly listed markets on the timing and nature of his succession, with Polymarket's volume on the successor-timing market surpassing $500,000 and odds shifting across several March dates.