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Analyst warns Bitcoin must regain $80,000 or risk 25% plunge toward $50,000
According to on-chain analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin's sharp swings between late January and early February 2026 have put the asset at risk of a 25% drop unless it climbs back above a key zone around $80,000. With BTC trading near $75,985 after rebounding from lows close to $73,000 on February 3, it remains below both the ETF cost basis of $82,600 and the 100-week SMA at $87,500, levels Martinez links to potential downside toward $57,000 and even $50,000 by March or April. He further projects the decline could extend to a possible cycle low around $38,000 in October if ETF inflows fail to improve.