The IMF said on April 2, 2026 that the US Federal Reserve has limited room to cut interest rates in 2026, with inflation projected to return to the 2% target in the first half of 2027. It expects one rate reduction by end-2026, with the benchmark rate seen at 3.25% to 3.5% versus the current 3.5% to 3.75%.

On March 5, 2026, a US federal judge ordered the government to start refunding more than $130 billion in tariffs to thousands of American companies after Trump's broad duties were struck down. At the same time, Trump has activated new 10% tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which can increase to 15% for up to 150 days and have already prompted the EU to pause a trade deal.